Ben Lane, director of technology, Siemens Mobility UK&I
The UK is on the cusp of the biggest affordability shift for rail in a generation. The question is whether we can turn pent up demand into punctual, reliable journeys, despite the public funding squeeze. The answer is we can, here’s how.
The moment
For the first time in 30 years, regulated rail fares in England will be frozen for a full year from March 2026. This avoids the usual RPI linked increase, roughly 5.8%, and brings with it a direct elasticity response. Long standing evidence shows that a 1% fare reduction lifts commuter demand by 0.3-0.6%. By avoiding a 5.8% rise, rail could see a 1.7-3.5% surge in patronage, particularly on high-cost routes.
This lands at the same moment that younger passengers are choosing greener, shared mobility over car ownership – a long-term behavioural trend supported by government and academic studies.
The bottom line is that demand is coming back, and with it, expectations for punctuality and reliability.
The tension
Network Rail’s current control period (CP7, 2024-29) faces inflationary cost pressure, constrained funding, and the need to reprofile renewals, with the regulator warning of potential asset deterioration and knock-on disruption if not managed carefully.
Even as £43.1billion has been set for CP7, leaders acknowledge those pounds must stretch further than ever, given price rises and more frequent extreme weather.
The paradox is that demand is set to lift as ticket affordability improves, but the public purse is tight, and the network is ageing. Ultimately, we can’t ‘spend our way’, so how can technology, funded in an alternative way, solve the problem?
The answer
The fastest step change in rail technology in half a century is already here. Applied well, it cuts delay minutes, reduces maintenance burden, and boosts capacity — all without the heavy civil engineering works traditionally required to lift performance. The opportunity now is to shift from incremental fixes to a railway that senses, decides, and adapts in real time.
Cut delays not corners
Traditional Automatic Route Setting (ARS) is powerful during stable running, but when perturbation hits, controllers must manually re-optimise paths, re-enter decisions, and resolve conflicts under pressure. Digital Conflict Resolution (DCR) changes that dynamic. It ingests live graphing, platform allocations, train associations, and local restrictions to generate conflict free replans in seconds, leaving humans to choose the best option, rather than compute it.
The results are already visible. At York and Peterborough control centres on the East Coast route, DCR is cutting platform awaiting delays by around 20%, providing exactly the micro delay savings that compound into stronger Public Performance Measure results and fewer cancellations. At Victoria station, the technology is also improving journeys for more than 50 million passengers a year. This is automation where it matters: not replacing skill but amplifying it.
Replacing hardware with software
Every signal head and lineside cabinet removed is one less point of failure, one less maintenance visit, and one more step toward a leaner, more reliable network. ETCS shifts signal aspects into the cab, increasing capacity – i.e. more trains for passengers and reducing trackside kit, resulting in lower whole life costs. The Northern City Line (between Finsbury Park and Moorgate) became the UK’s first signals free commuter railway in 2025 – proof that digital signalling isn’t experimental; it’s operational.
The next leap is virtualising the safety critical brains themselves. Siemens Mobility’s DS3 (Distributed Smart Safe System) runs interlockings and Radio Block Centres on commercial off-the-shelf hardware in data centre environments. These are delivered at the highest safety levels possible – safety integrity level 4 (SIL4).
Digitalising interlockings leads to lower lifecycle cost, easier scaling, and enables remote updates. The payoff is simple: fewer costly and time-consuming on‑site engineering visits, less obsolescence, and an upgrade path defined by software, not concrete. When budgets must buy capability rather than clutter, this matters.
Self diagnosing assets
Traditional maintenance models assume failure must be found, diagnosed, and fixed in sequence, often requiring multiple site visits. New technology and workflows flip that logic.
For example, Siemens Mobility’s Rail Maintenance Supervisor (RMS) brings together equipment health, fault codes, geolocation, and safe access points into a single maintainer application, helping teams get it right first time – with the right parts and the right method statements.
Another technology called Digital Surveyor combines high-definition imagery, a geographic information system, and a digital twin to plan interventions remotely, reducing the need for site survey access by 90% and improving installation efficiency and safety. In addition, Trainborne Condition Monitoring (TBCM) technology uses onboard sensors to detect ‘rough rides’ – early signs of track defects – allowing maintenance to be scheduled off-peak, minimising Temporary Speed Restrictions and service disruption. This technology has already been proven to predict landslides.
Together, these tools shift the railway from find and fix to predict and prevent, cutting delay attribution, fuel use, and safety risk, while also improving punctuality which passengers actually feel.
Digital twins and data platforms
Digital twins and modern data platforms help operators extract more value from every asset. Connected Driver Advisory Systems, for example, give train drivers real time, data driven speed advice that improves punctuality and smooths operations while cutting energy use. Trials show up to 20% energy savings on commuter routes – a direct operational benefit delivered without major infrastructure work.
Digital twins of railways enable testing of equipment to take place virtually, without the delays and costs associated with live testing. This has been implemented as part of the East Coast Digital Programme with the Siemens Mobility testing lab in Chippenham, where all parties involved in ETCS deployment have been able to use digital twin technology to test solutions cost effectively.
The procurement shift
Public funding cycles are tight, but transformation doesn’t need to wait. A shift in procurement mindset can unlock progress in the following ways:
Rather than buying hardware and hoping benefits follow, outcome based procurement contracts can help all parties focus on what operators value most: measurable improvements in punctuality, reductions in delay minutes, and availability guarantees. It aligns risk and reward with those best placed to manage it and reflects models already proven across other infrastructure sectors. This approach is also referenced in UK rail reform discourse.
Special Purpose Vehicles and other project finance mechanisms can reinforce this alignment. They ring-fence risk, lock in long-term technical stewardship, and recycle capital through mature private finance instruments without compromising safety or operational control. Recent analyses point to a consistent conclusion: with a clear pipeline and stable commercial frameworks, private capital will step forward alongside public investment. This can be a vital lever when budgets can no longer stretch to meet every need.
A pragmatic model blends OPEX-friendly, as-a-service model for software and analytics, with targeted CAPEX for added value asset replacement and essential renewals. Crucially, capital investment will achieve operational savings breaking the under-investment cycle and relieving pressure on government funding. It’s a model where modernisation begins to pay for itself.
Procuring the future
The next wave of rail technology will only land if we modernise how solutions are offered, procured, and embedded. Clarity, affordability, and demonstrable value for money remain essential, but adoption depends just as much on how technology fits into the lived reality of operational teams.
Even the smartest system delivers little if it creates extra work for people already operating at full tilt. Telling a maintenance team that new tools will surface more faults simply increases pressure and risks disengagement. Helping them plan, prioritise, and resolve work more effectively is where technology earns trust. That’s why the industry has increasingly leaned into partnerships: combining strengths to build solutions that are not only technically strong, but operationally absorbable.
Procurement, however, has become harder, not easier. Evolving regulation makes even straightforward purchases complex; add fast changing digital capability, partnership driven delivery, and the need for deep user embedment, and traditional models struggle. Future procurement frameworks must create space to prove concepts, scale successful outcomes, and adapt as technology evolves. Long-term partnerships, flexible frameworks, and strategic engagement with the supply chain enable this kind of dynamism but designing them requires a shift from transactional buying to outcome-based thinking.
The catalyst and game changer
The digital technologies outlined earlier are already reshaping the network, and we are now working on the next phase. AI will multiply their impact. As rail systems become more digital, AI becomes the integrator: drawing on signalling data, maintenance insight, operational plans, and wider contextual information to transform how we timetable, run, maintain, and invest in rail.
The more digital systems we introduce, the more powerful the ecosystem becomes. AI enabled analysis will refine timetables continuously, optimise operational decisions in real time, generate dynamic maintenance regimes, and support investment decisions grounded in evidence rather than periodic reviews. Performance, customer satisfaction, and value for money will be measured and improved through live feedback loops.
If we can create this environment, we may no longer have five-year control periods but ever improving intelligent control.
Why this moment matters
Freezing fares creates a window: more passengers, higher expectations, and a railway under pressure to deliver. The fastest route to better punctuality per pound is already available – automation, digital solutions, predictive maintenance, smarter procurement, all enhanced with AI. The question is no longer whether the technology is ready. It’s whether we’re ready to deploy it at the pace the moment demands.
Image credit: Siemens Mobility UK&I