As we celebrate Railway 200, we consider what the future holds for Britain’s railways. In doing so we imagine two quite different possibilities.
One possible future envisages intolerable road congestion and increasingly common extreme climate events, that will make it politically acceptable to tax HGVs, motorists, and flights to encourage model shift to rail. With a strong cross-party consensus that rail investment generates significant economic returns, a huge programme of railway investment drives a significant economic upturn.
As a result, by 2125 the original HS2 ‘Y’ network, Northern Powerhouse Rail, and other new lines will have been built. In addition, all main lines and key freight lines have been electrified and signalled by ETCS. Investment in light rail and local bus networks, together with seamless through ticketing, will offer easy door-to-door journeys. As a result, passenger and freight rail traffic volumes are three times those of 2025 and rail accounts for 25% of all passenger and freight traffic. This modal shift to net-zero electric trains will also significantly reduce UK transport carbon emissions.
A quite different future is envisaged by a respected engineer who told me that in 100 years’ time railways will be footpaths as rising costs will have driven them out of business. Though it is difficult to accept this extreme scenario, the railway’s cost to the taxpayer is currently over four times more than at privatisation in 1994 and rising project costs have curtailed HS2 and railway electrification. As an example, readers are invited to estimate the cost of the deliverables of the 2010 A2B project and compare this with its £520 million cost at today’s prices.
In this future, high costs reduce the Government’s appetite for rail investment. Hence, by 2125, there will have been few, if any, significant new enhancement projects, very little new electrification, and the digital signalling programme will have stalled. The rise in rail passenger and freight traffic peaked around 2050 as no more trains could be accommodated on the network. Hence by 2125, rail traffic will then have fallen to 5% of all passenger and freight traffic.
Though these alternative futures are two extremes, they illustrate the point that railways have the potential to transform the UK economy, just as they did in the past. Yet the extent to which they can do so depends on government investment which, in turn, depends on whether the industry can deliver affordable projects.
These visions of the future do not mention innovations. Modern technologies such as AI and improved data management will no doubt improve efficiency and customer experience. However, for the past 200 years the railways have been engineered to be the most efficient form of transport for large volumes of traffic in respect of energy use, capacity, and land take. This will always be the case as these inherent benefits derive from the laws of physics which will not change in the future.
For this reason, these benefits should be better promoted. It was, for example, disappointing that there was no explanation of why railways are so efficient in the otherwise excellent Railway 200 inspiration train. Alstom’s greatest gathering was literally a huge celebration of the railways’ 200th year. As we report, its many rail vehicles showed how rolling stock had developed over the years as well as showcasing modern railway technology.
As part of our signalling focus in this issue, we have a Railway 200 feature in which Paul Darlington considers developments in signalling since 1900. We report on the groundbreaking introduction of Signalling Solid State Interlocking (SSI) 40 years ago, while Clive Kessell describes the first use of Radio Electronic Token Block (RETB), also introduced 40 years ago.
Level crossings are a challenge for signalling engineers as shown our report on the 17th International Level Crossing Awareness Day. A common theme of the need to take account of human behaviour was shared by representatives from Japan, Argentina, Canada, USA, and many European countries.
The signalling system is now being used to eliminate the historic (and risky) practice of using detonators to protect possessions. Our feature describes this and other current track safety improvements such as geolocation that will both improve track safety and deliver productivity benefits.
ETCS cab signalling also brings safety and productivity benefits. In a comprehensive feature, David Fenner describes why it is such a disruptive technology with initial high costs. He explains why, though its capacity benefits are small, ETCS will eventually offer significant benefits. In another feature, Malcom Dobell explains how ETCS does not yet take account of differential speed limits, axle-load-related speed restrictions, and the braking characteristics of different locomotive-hauled train formations.
Although the railways’ civil engineering dates back to its origins, very few operational assets are that old. One is described by Bob Wright in his feature about the recently completed renovations of the railway swing bridge over the River Ouse at Goole which is powered by 157-year old hydraulic machinery. This required reverse engineering and Historic England’s agreement for changes to the original machinery. We also report on the major work to replace the 67-year-old bridge over the railway at Greek Street in Stockport.
We have three reports on the activities of the IMechE’s Railway Division which does much to support young engineers. To date, over 1,200 young engineers have benefited from the experience they gain from competing in the Railway Challenge. Our report on the 13th challenge shows it always offers something new. We also report on the Division’s action-packed technical tour to Netherlands, Germany, and France on which around 20 young engineers learnt much about railway engineering in Europe.
Engineering good connections is the title of the Railway Division’s Chair’s address. This year’s chair, Rebeka Sellick, used the word ‘connections’ in various different contexts: the need to link different parts of the railway system; better communications between different parts of the railway; and providing passengers with connected journeys. She also urged engineers to connect with decision makers to convince them of what the railway offers.
As part of our Sustainability and Environment focus we report on the Railway Industry Association (RIA) Environment and Sustainability Group as well as managing earthworks and drainage monitoring. The common theme of these articles is taking effective action to address climate change which is now a reality.
Finally, as Andrew Haines retires from his post of Network Rail’s CEO after seven years, Rail Engineer would like acknowledge his contribution to the industry. Among many other things he has made Network Rail a more customer-facing organisation and paved the way for rail reform. I remember Andrew for his honest, off-the-record press briefings which provided invaluable background information. We wish him well in his retirement.
Image credit: David Shirres