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Finland: current and future signalling

In May this year, the Institution of Railway Signal Engineering (IRSE) held its International Convention in Helsinki, Finland to learn of the challenges that the railways face and the country’s plans for the future.

Finland is a country with a large land mass but a relatively small population of around five million people. Helsinki is its capital where one million citizens reside; Tampere and Turku are big centres with other communities being significantly smaller. The weather changes dramatically over the year with heavy snow in the winter and only twilight in the daytime, especially in the north, compared to long and often hot sunny days in the summer.

The country has a long land border with Russia of around 1,300km which has had a notable impact on its history. It is heavily forested and has mineral wealth. Its railway network has to provide service to many customers in often extreme conditions.

Finland’s railway uses a track gauge of 1524mm which is wider than the UK standard gauge of 1435mm. This creates an interoperability problem with its near neighbour Sweden but does allow through traffic to Russia which has a 1520mm gauge though such traffic is currently minimal. The network is 6,000km with 88% being single track. The main train operator is VR which provides all the longer distance service. HSL provides all local passenger transport around Helsinki that includes local trains, metro, trams, and ferries.

The Helsinki Metro is 46km long and carries 78.4 million people each year. The extensive Helsinki tram lines have 123 km of route and provide for 50.3 million journeys to which is added a light rail extension of 25km that carries 12.6 million journeys each year. The local Helsinki train service shares tracks with VR, provided by the National Infrastructure Company. Helsinki is expanding, and extensions to the rail, metro, and tram networks are planned and happening.

A VR Inter City train. Credit: David Fenner

All of this represents a challenge for the rail network, and major upgrades to both signalling and operations are foreseen over a 14-year period.

Current and future signalling

Much of the current signalling dates from the 1980s with multiple aspect colour lights in the denser areas and passing loops on the single lines. The network has both free wired and geographical relay based interlockings which require regular five-year relay servicing. Point machines are traditionally Siemens products with 600V three-phase input power, adapted to deal with the harsh weather conditions in winter.

Interestingly, no use is made of clamp locks which are deemed incapable of reliable operation in winter. It all works well but is ageing and precludes any significant increase in capacity with only limited opportunities for improved driver information and energy savings. It does have a nationwide Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system known as STP, introduced over a number of years following some unfortunate accidents.

Having looked around Europe and elsewhere, the Finns have decided, as a broad order objective, to adopt ERTMS on a nationwide basis and to add Automatic Train Operation (ATO) as an overlay to this. It is ambitious but aligns with plans in other Scandinavian countries.

As well as introducing in-cab signalling, the system will improve rail safety by minimising human errors, reduce traffic control costs, increase capacity, punctuality and energy efficiency, and improve the usability of operational railway data.

Equally, the Helsinki Metro signalling dates from the 1980s and has capacity limitation issues. The plan is to progress to a Communication Based Train Control (CBTC) which will include much increased CCTV coverage within the trains, better passenger applications and entertainment, plus much improved maintenance data and end-to-end security. Again, an ambitious programme that will require innovative ways to adapt the train fleet.

The ERTMS programme

Work is well underway to develop the ERTMS programme now known as the DigiRail Programme. This will be based on the usual ETCS Level 2 functionality with fixed block sections, track balises for train positioning, and in cab driver interfaces.  A test track has been identified from Tampere to Rauma, which will be used for developing the verification phase lasting until 2029. A test train is already available which was witnessed by the convention delegates. The programme consists of the usual stages – planning, procurement, construction, and deployment, with the first section becoming operational in 2029. Thereafter the roll out will continue with an expected completion date of 2040.

The ERTMS test train. Credit: David Fenner

ETCS Level 2 requires a radio link. The Finns abandoned GSM-R in favour of Tetra several years ago but that network is also ageing. Mindful of Future Rail Mobile Communications System (FRMCS) as its development as a 5G standard, the Finns consider that the most cost-effective way of achieving this is by using the public radio operators (Mobile Network Operators – MNOs) of which there are three. The nationwide coverage is good, and it is not anticipated that any significant additional coverage will be required.

Negotiations are taking place as to how secure radio communication can be guaranteed within a public network, in essence by creating a virtual private network that is not put at risk by peaks of general public usage. Just how the economics of this approach will work out has still to be made known, but it is likely that a much quicker deployment of the vital radio link can be achieved. It is an interesting concept which will be watched by other countries facing the transition from GSM-R to FRMCS. Finland may be different in that the MNOs are under a legal obligation to provide similar coverage quality to all transport corridors as given to static buildings. The railways therefore have the same coverage as motorways and villages.

Connecting it all

The Finns are very conscious of not being locked into a single signalling supplier. An ERTMS system requires centralised control centre(s) to which the outlying trackside equipment – points, level crossings, lineside signals, and such like – are connected by Object Controllers. These need to be capable of connecting to any type of equipment at the trackside regardless of the manufacturer.

Fortunately, a pan European project known as EULYNX which is an IP-based technology, aims to achieve an open access standardised network configured in a ring formation to protect against cable cuts or transmission loss. Much was made of the progress of EULYNX at the convention with a number of suppliers promoting their designs and equipment.

Among these were Frauscher, perhaps better known for axle counter equipment but now expanding into other signalling peripherals; Westermo, a Swedish company with a long tradition of supplying data links for rail applications; Voestalpine Signalling from Poland; and MIPRO, a Finnish company based in Mikkeli and other Baltic outposts.

Another was Relesoft which is active in EULYNX products and protocol convertors. In particular, it provides services to enable older equipment to connect to modern interlockings using the EULYNX protocol. All of these will compete for the ongoing business but it should result in a fully open access system capable of supporting ERTMS applications and traffic management control.

Automatic Train Protection

As mentioned, the STP system is in operation nationwide and has successfully protected train services from driver errors that might have caused major accidents. The system is balise based, these being powered by induction from the train as it passes over them but with a wired connection for data input from the signalling system. With the proposal to introduce ETCS, both systems will have to operate in parallel for a period of time. This requires the development of a new balise that will facilitate both ETCS and STP operation. The new unit will be similar in size to the existing ones, so is not a standard Euro Balise product.

Equally, the trains will require to be retro fitted to cover both systems with the expected cost of €1 million per train. Such are the perils of retrofit

STP system test Rack at Kouvola Training Centre. Credit: Clive Kessell

Automatic Train Operation

Aligned with ERTMS are the ATO ambitions. The traditional benefits were all outlined, viz. increased capacity, improved punctuality, energy efficiency, and passenger comfort. The eventual aim is to go to GoA2 (Grade of Operation) which will retain a driver to enable trains to continue should the ATO fail. Technical challenges include optimisation of traction power and brake control, stopping accuracy, door controls and degraded situations.

The use of MNOs for the radio link between track and train will have to encompass the ATO requirements and clearly ATO cannot be realised until ETCS is in place. Testing is planned for 2027 using a Stadler Flirt test train. The first commercial operation is projected to be in 2030 with rollout following that. Final commissioning in the Helsinki suburban area is planned for 2035. The possibility of GoA4 (fully driverless trains) for freight traffic is under consideration.

While ATO would yield real benefits in the dense suburban areas of Helsinki, energy efficiency elsewhere might be achieved by considering other easier, quicker, and cheaper technologies. No mention was made of the Driver Advisory System (DAS) and there are many proprietary systems around. These are non-safety systems and, at the simplest level, can be realised by an iPad or similar device in the driver’s cab.

Because much of Finland’s railways are single track, a DAS indication could tell the driver the most economic speed to reach the next passing loop. Couple this with a degree of connectivity, and it could predict the optimum speed when considering the whereabouts of other trains that have to be passed. Food for thought?

Traffic Control Centres

Finnish railways have four traffic control centres covering the country. The one in Helsinki is in a modern building on the city outskirts which also houses the road traffic control for the Helsinki metropolitan area. It was fascinating to watch the traffic flows, the congestion places, and the interaction with the tram network street running in the city centre. With an objective of keeping traffic flowing freely, the control can close off lanes, impose speed restrictions and initiate diversions. It is not a policing unit and incidents of speeding or driver misuse are not within its jurisdiction.

Back to rail, the three control sites each have their Centralised Traffic Control (CTC) operation with limited TMS applications but do not communicate with each other except by voice calls if needed. Most information is processed manually and the existing systems are not expandable.

A new project known as ATLAS will provide a fully integrated solution with automation doing all the routine tasks of rolling stock and crew utilisation, advanced traffic forecasting, conflict management, traffic optimisation, track maintenance updates and planning, all with a unified user interface. ATLAS is not dependent on ERTMS and will be developed in house making much of AI opportunities. The development team currently has 20 people, but this will increase.

Helsinki Metro upgrade

With the original parts of the Metro now over 40 years old, the time has come to replace the existing signalling and manual driving with a CBTC system. The Metro is basically one line running west to east but with the western end split into two spurs with different destinations. The central core is underground with the outer suburb lines being above ground. The rolling stock comprises:

Helsinki Metro. Credit: iStockphoto.com / Anouchka
  • M100 – 39 two car units, the oldest.
  • M200 – 12 two car units, repeat order.
  • M300 – 25 four car units, more recent order.

These reflect the passenger usage growth and the extension of the system into the outer suburbs. The signalling uses track circuits, fixed block, trip cocks, and lineside signals. Spares are increasingly difficult to obtain.

The Metro Capacity and Reliability Improvement (METKA) project will embrace the Optio CBTC system from CAF to give bi-directional continuous communication, a frequency based operating strategy and on-board safe positioning. Track circuits will be replaced with axle counters. The radio connectivity will be telecom agnostic and will use either public or private 5G links.

A requirement is that no service disruption will be allowed during the installation, testing, and commissioning stages which will be something of a challenge. A new fleet of trains will be purchased – M400 – whereupon the older M100 and M200 trains will be withdrawn. The M300 fleet will be retro fitted with the CBTC equipment but the authorities were reticent about how much this would cost.

The control centre is located near one of the outlying stations and has all the normal screen-based displays for controlling train movements. This will be adapted for CBTC operation in due course. A training room exists alongside and it was interesting to watch a simulation of a failed train and the subsequent introduction of a section of single line working to get trains around the obstruction. There are crossovers at many stations that facilitate short sections of single line working.

The Metro has two depots, each for both storing and cleaning trains overnight plus undertaking heavy maintenance when this becomes due. The older depot in the closer suburbs appeared very busy with all the routine tasks and spares holdings but the newer depot built underground at the eastern end was very quiet. It will no doubt become much busier as the Metro operation expands.

The Metro management must be complimented on the thought that has gone into the upgrade, and one can only hope that everything will go to plan.

Cost challenges

Not related to Finland in particular, a presentation to the conference from Wabtec Corporation, outlined the dilemma facing many railways about how to re-signal regional lines at an affordable cost. Various technologies of the past, with many still in use, were listed including: Train Stops, AWS / TPWS, PZB, ALSN, KVB / ATC2, LZB / TVM / ETCS L1, and ETCS L2 / PTC. Many of these relate to European countries and America and may not be recognised by UK readers. The older of these were often mandated because of accidents but as they become obsolete the way forward is a problem.

Credit: iStockphoto.com / Robson PL

ETCS L2 will never be cost effective for low density lines and the cost of retrofitting trains is prohibitive. This causes a signalling deadlock but to move forward any new system must reduce operational expenditure (trackside equipment maintenance), increase safety and availability, increase capacity, and address obsolescence. More importantly, it must achieve interoperability and keep capital expenditure as low as possible.

Wabtec has the concept of VirtuoSig which aims to maintain old legacy systems but adapt them to emulate ETCS operation. Signals would be replaced with block markers, radio connectivity would be introduced, and legacy ATP suppliers would need to develop and certify interfaces. In addition, interlocking suppliers need to adapt existing systems and signalling design companies would need to translate traditional designs. Introducing the concept on to pilot lines would require funding. The idea has to have appeal and there are other initiatives emerging elsewhere as to how this problem might be tackled.

In summary

This was a fascinating convention and the delegates, who were from all parts of the globe, will have learned much from what was presented and demonstrated.

Finland is to be congratulated on its ambitious plans which may well be emulated elsewhere. The cost of it all will be crucial and making new signalling plans affordable may take some convincing with the company financial masters.

Congratulations to the IRSE and to its current President, Professor Rod Muttram, for having the vision to organise the visit, as well as to the Finnish authorities for their excellent organisation.

Image credit: iStockphoto.com / Erk Sahistrom

In conversation with Jeremy Westlake

Jeremy Westlake became the chief executive officer (CEO) of Network Rail in October 2025 having previously been the company’s chief finance officer (CFO) for nine years. Before that he had two years as CFO for Alstom and five years with Rolls Royce, with three years as executive vice president, finance of the gas turbine supply chain and two years as CFO of its energy sector.

His time at Rolls Royce involved supply chain management, engineering, manufacturing, projects, and long-term product development. At Alstom he was involved in global rail projects and products. While Network Rail’s CFO he often deputised for the CEO. Thus, though Jeremy has a strong finance background, he also has significant experience of operational, engineering, and manufacturing roles.

Network Rail currently faces challenging performance, engineering, and financial targets as well as the transition to Great British Railways (GBR). Although this offers significant benefits, much about GBR and its implications for engineering is unknown. Rail Engineer was therefore delighted to accept Jeremy’s kind invitation to discuss GBR and other key issues.

Joining Network Rail

Before discussing specific issues, I asked Jeremy what he found to be the most surprising aspects of joining Network Rail to which the answer was stakeholders and regulation. In rail there is a need to engage with a much broader stakeholder base than the private sector which focuses on customers and stakeholders.

This is because the railway’s purpose is much broader than just making money. Hence, as well as customers and government, regional and local community interests must be considered.  What this shows is that the railway really does matter to a lot of people.

Credit: Network Rail

The other aspect was regulation. With his aviation experience, Jeremy was used to safety regulation but not the economic regulation, which is another difference between rail and the private sector. Such regulatory requirements, political interests, and a heavily unionised environment can make change quite difficult. Hence changes require a lot more to stakeholder engagement and the need to take the workforce with you.

In summary, Jeremy advised that:

“Getting change to happen in an organisation with so many stakeholders is both the challenge and the opportunity to learn and do things differently. You have to be more acutely aware of the breadth of your stakeholder base in this role than you would in a private sector role.”

Engineering and GBR

We next considered the opportunities that GBR presents for a better engineered railway.

Data being integrated rather than kept in different places will offer new opportunities, was Jeremy’s first response. He was confident that sharing data more freely would reveal opportunities that weren’t visible previously especially with the use of AI. We considered whether data sharing between Train Operating Companies (TOCs) had improved in recent times and if the Rail Data Marketplace had also increased data sharing.

Jeremy accepted that this may well be the case but felt that, to avoid artificial separation by corporate structures, it was important to have common data ownership of data on, for example, train positioning, asset management, and asset performance. This would ensure better use of data to produce, as an example, better timetables.

Jeremy also sees a world in which train operations can really serve infrastructure management through the better use of computer vision and train-mounted sensors to give a greater insight of what’s happening on the infrastructure.

Optimising train tyre turning regime is another benefit. While train operators wish to minimise this cost, more frequent tyre turning could extend track life. As track renewals is Network Rail’s biggest expenditure, optimising the tyre turning regime has huge potential benefits.

In respect of adhesion and fitting improved equipment, such large-scale fitment of double variable rate sanders for which GBR might be able to develop a whole system business case based, for example, on improved performance.

We also considered whether there was a need for an engineering strategy that considers these various issues to ensure that they are addressed on a whole system basis. Jeremy felt that an industry forum might be needed to get this going. He advised that where track and train have been pulled together into integrated business units, smarter questions have now been asked resulting in smarter trade-off decisions.

I asked whether there was a similar whole system engineering focus in shadow GBR to which the response was that it was early days yet as GBR’s engineering organisation is still being designed.

Credit: Network Rail

Finance

To minimise the whole life cost of train operations, the initial capital cost of trains and associated infrastructure investment needs to be balanced against whole life operating costs. Yet infrastructure enhancements are funded by Treasury spending review and trains purchased with private finance. I asked Jeremy for his views on this.

He considered that GBR’s funding structure will be easier to manage than before as GBR will have sight of the whole business case. However, he acknowledged that having infrastructure funded on a five-year cycle with train services and train procurement largely focused on typically a three-year spending review cycle is not perfect. Yet he considered that this would not be impossible to manage.

This arrangement meant that certain funding was ring-fenced. He felt that was important and it would be wrong to under-invest in infrastructure maintenance and renewal because of a revenue shortfall. He mentioned the consequences of German under investment in railway infrastructure and noted that some years ago a benchmarking exercise concluded that UK rail investment was much higher than other European railways. Yet those other European railways were under-investing.

Jeremy considered that the “Treasury are the smart guys” and that their ability to protect the railway should not be under estimated. I asked if that meant the Treasury would accept a good business case that showed an infrastructure investment which delivered significant operation cost savings and generated extra business through increased capacity. The answer was that it might, but that, however good the rate of return, pressures on other expenditures, such as defence for example, may make the proposal unaffordable.

Efficiencies

Network Rail’s ‘Delivering an Efficient Railway’ report for Control Periods 6 & 7 shows that over this 10-year period it will have reduced costs by 23% to deliver £12 billions of efficiency savings. I asked Jeremy how this was done. He advised that he had developed a fishbone approach which assigns initiatives into categories to identify efficiencies and then clearly communicate these opportunities. This approach also identifies mitigating factors to combat cost drivers and provides effective governance.

He also thought that these savings showed that Network Rail is working better with its supply chain and referred me to this report which showed that CP7 efficiencies in fishbone categories were:

  • Engineering access – 9.4%
  • Delivery – 24.9%
  • Technology – 18.2%
  • Commercial – 20.8%
  • Design – 4.6%
  • Workbank planning – 6.6%
  • Scope efficiency – 2.0%
  • Other – 13.3%

He felt that when he joined Network Rail, it was difficult to drive efficiency into their maintenance and renewals work. Yet now routine. Jeremy advised getting an organisation to have a methodology and culture to drive efficiency is one of the things he is proudest of during his time as CFO.

He stressed that this discipline would need to continue under GBR. Funding will always be constrained, while the railway’s ambitions and demands on investment are likely to exceed what government can provide. Efficiency, therefore, must remain part of everyday business.

Project costs

Though these efficiencies are impressive, I raised my concern about project costs based on my experience of the Airdrie to Bathgate project on which I was working when I retired from Network Rail. This project transformed a 22km cycle path into a two-track electrified railway with four new stations. On the existing railway it did 12km of double tracking, rebuilt four stations and delivered 58 stk electrification into Edinburgh. All this work was done for £375 million at 2010 prices.

My 2010 article on this project included a detailed list of deliverables which I asked CoPilot to price. I also sought advice from a contact who could benchmark these deliverables. This exercise concluded that, if constructed today, this project would cost between £2.2 and £3.4 billion. Applying a steel-intensive construction inflation to the Airdrie Bathgate project saw it delivered for a cost of £850 million in todays’ prices.

Airdrie Bathgate deliverables.

Having previously supplied this analysis to Jeremy’s office, I asked him for his reaction. Although he did not comment specifically on the Airdrie to Bathgate project, he felt that certain aspects of rail management have got more expensive than others. One such example is uncontrollable energy prices. Another is the cost of signalling equipment which has significantly increased.

He noted that different projects have different levels of complexity and that it is important to be careful when benchmarking. He felt that Network Rail achieves fantastic unit rates on certain types of projects though there were significant cost pressures. Jeremy also acknowledged the need to shorten timescales for planning, development design, approvals, and funding. He also accepted that there was a large upfront cost now before physical work can start. That’s why Network Rail developed Project SPEED which is creating a process and culture to address these issues.

Engineering access

Although changes in the engineering access regime have resulting in large savings, I asked how this was balanced against loss of revenue and disruption to passengers who may choose not to travel by rail in the future.

Jeremy advised that the schedule four regime that compensated operators for planned engineering work had a theoretical value of revenue loss. A lot of work was done to assess this which concluded that demand elasticity was nowhere near as great as had been thought. Hence the schedule four rates were significantly reduced.

He noted that travel patterns have changed with more leisure than commuter travel. As a result, instead of taking three-day blockages over bank holiday weekend, such blockages are done on different weekends as leisure travellers want to travel during bank holidays.

He advised that closing the railway for a period of time to avoid the need for frequent mobilisation and demobilisation enables work to be done in a shorter overall time but in a concentrated way. Network Rail has found that, provided passengers can plan around it, they prefer the railway to be closed for a shorter overall time but in a concentrated way. Hence if it’s cheaper and gives you much better customer satisfaction at the end of the day, there’s every reason to do more of it.

I then asked about the extent to which single line working had been considered, particularly in respect of freight traffic north of Preston on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). I advised that one of my contacts had advised Avanti that it should be possible to divide the northern part of the WCML’s single line sections to enable high-output plant to work on the adjacent line.

Jeremy stressed that this could only be done if it was safe to do so. He couldn’t comment on whether it was safe to use high-output plant in this way but was aware of the effectiveness of geofencing technology to keep personnel off adjacent live lines. He had worn, and tested, this himself.

Electrification

When we discussed electrification. I mentioned that I was curious to know why the Westminster and Scottish Governments have a different view. In a recent traction policy document, Transport Scotland considers that electrification is required for routes that have freight as well as InterCity or suburban services. In contrast the Westminster view is that due the opportunities provided by batteries, all routes must be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Jeremy considered that there was an increasing opportunity to use battery electric trains that don’t require full electrification. On this we agreed, though I expressed the Scottish view that this did not apply to core routes with Inter City and freight traffic which have a very high-power requirement.

I also suggested that the case for discontinuous electrification was not that clear cut. This is due to the recently reduced cost of electrification, not-so-obvious costs associated with discontinuous electrification, and the higher cost of battery train operation. For example, Irish Rail considers that the best whole life cost option to electrify their Cork commuter route is full electrification. This is largely due to the work done by Network Rail to reduce its cost, in particular the use of voltage-controlled clearance technology to eliminate the need for most bridge reconstructions.

When we talked about that case for electric freight haulage, I referred to the recent Railway Industry Association (RIA) report ‘Growing rail freight: the need for targeted electrification’ which showed how electric haulage could grow rail freight as it would provide extra paths for both freight and passenger services. This report also demonstrated why battery-only freight locomotives are not feasible.

While Jeremy agreed that electric freight trains have better acceleration, he felt that it would never make economic sense to electrify a mainline route just for freight especially as electric diesel or battery hybrid locomotives can be used. Jeremy raised the power supply limitations on the northern part of the WCML and considered that the extra train paths provided would not justify the high cost of upgrading this supply.

Though our discussion did not reconcile the differing English and Scottish views on electrification, it was clear that the case for eventual full electrification of core routes needs more than the qualitive arguments that seem obvious to engineers. Hence, it would be good to see, in the public domain, the costs and benefits of both discontinuous electrification and full electric freight haulage on the WCML.

Infrastructure Inspection Unit. Credit: One Big Circle

Asset reliability

I asked Jeremy why, over the past five years, there had not been much improvement on the total train delay minutes caused by infrastructure failures. He acknowledged that this was the case though pointed out that infrastructure failure rates fell dramatically over a long time and then became stubbornly stable for about five years. (Up to 2015, five-yearly average Network Rail delay minutes was 12.4 million, up to 2025 this average was 8.3 million).

He was glad to have been asked this question as asset reliability is currently one of the most important things for him. He felt that Network Rail needs to reinvigorate the focus on asset reliability especially as reliable assets are safe assets. He noted that even assets that fail in a safe condition present risk.

Hence, he is pushing hard on an asset reliability focus and felt it important to understand exactly why assets fail. Is it the design of the equipment? Is it the way that we maintain it? Is it the way that we protect it from heat? Jeremy considered that there is not a points or train detection systems failure mode that we do not understand so wondered why we tolerate asset failure. He noted that in aviation engines and other components are designed never to fail.

On a positive note, he mentioned that Network Rail has point machines that work brilliantly. As an example, he mentioned the HPSS Mark II that has been developed and assembled by Network Rail’s Technology Development Team in Weston-super-Mare. Though this had some initial failures it has been re-engineered and designed for serviceability and is now a brilliant asset.

He also considered that there is a need to standardise with best-in-class assets which reduces the training workload if there is a very mixed portfolio of assets.

Jeremy felt that the challenge was to understand what can be done system-wise to ensure we can predict and prevent failures as well as understand how to design the best asset. He suggested that this topic is worthy of an article. I responded that Rail Engineer would be glad to produce such a piece.

Innovation

On the subject of innovation, Jeremy considered that the railway was great at innovation and weak at adoption. He accepted that there had been some worthwhile innovations which, for example, have delivered efficiency savings and enabled red zone working to be all but abolished due to automated infrastructure monitoring.

Yet every time he talks to supply chain partners, they tell him how difficult it is to get products approved, adopted, and deployed on the railway. Though suppliers recognise the efforts made to improve this, they advise that it has not got any easier. He advised that anyone he asks says that rail is a slower adopter of technology than other industries.

Perhaps the primary reason for this is safety risk aversion. Another is how innovation is procured. Going to the market under public procurement rules makes it hard for companies to justify investment in their intellectual property with a resultant reduction in R&D expenditure.

Jeremy acknowledged that there is very strong and healthy university rail research which can still connect with our European partners. However, since Brexit we have lost our ability, for example, to fully participate in the Horizon programmes.

Though there’s a place for experimentation, at what point should there be a decision to standardise, which brings significant benefits? One aspect of the long-term rolling stock strategy will be more standardised fleet, and this philosophy also needs to be applied to rail infrastructure assets.

Jeremy’s message

My last question was what message does he have for railway engineers as they are about to become part of GBR?

First, think of the whole system, was his immediate response. This requires thinking that considers how service trains can monitor infrastructure and system cost optimisation across the wheel rail interface. Focus on the customer. Think about asset reliability and the data needed to run the railway better and cheaper.

Bringing train operations and infrastructure management together in integrated units offers great potential benefits and should encourage such thinking.

I found my hour with Jeremy Westlake to be quite thought provoking especially in respect of how GBR can benefit railway engineering. Perhaps this interview also indicates what engineers need to do to make GBR a success.

At the end of the interview Jeremy recalled advice he had been given at Rolls Royce that: “An engineer is someone who can produce what the customer can afford.” This certainly seems quite relevant for GBR.

Presentation

Jeremy is giving a presentation entitled ‘What engineers can do for GBR’ for the IMechE’s Railway Division in Glasgow on Wednesday 2 September. All members of the railway community are welcome to attend and can book their place using the QR code.

Image credit: Network Rail

TBF Proudly Welcomes Mark Hopwood as Patron

It has been announced that Mark Hopwood CBE, Managing Director of GWR, has become a Patron of the Transport Benevolent Fund CIO, known as TBF. 

“I am delighted to be joining the team of TBF patrons. The railway is a family, and it is important that we come together to offer support when needed,” says Mark.

TBF Patrons include leading figures in the major transport groups and the trades unions. They offer a deep understanding of the importance of staff welfare in operating a successful business.

Michael Gibson, TBF’s Ambassador for the South West, Wales and GWR in particular, says: “TBF is delighted to have Mark on board as a Patron. He is a great advocate for the charity and supports TBF visiting GWR sites to engage with staff and promote the benefits of being a TBF member when life doesn’t quite go according to plan. We are most grateful for the help and support offered by all of our Patrons.”

TBF is a not-for-profit membership charity that embraces everyone in Great Britain engaged in the public transport industry and related services. Membership costs just £1.25 per week, which is less than 20p per day, and covers the prime member, their live-in partner and dependent children. If need, hardship or distress arises, TBF offers a wide range of health, welfare, and financial benefits.

The charity currently has just under 68,000 members, and, to illustrate the relevance of the charity’s work, during the quarter January 1st to March 31st 2026, it paid out £895,541 to members.

It is becoming increasingly popular for TBF membership to be paid for by the employer as part of the employment package, helping to improve members’ work-life balance and reducing staff turnover.

It is easy to join TBF, visit www.tbf.org.uk and sign up. Once logged in, members can personally access their account online via the membership portal.

Image credit: TBF (Michael Gibson (left) from TBF welcomes GWR’s Mark Hopwood as a TBF Patron).

GBR needs an engineering strategy

Despite the findings of the Transport Select Committee’s (TSC) report ‘Rail Investment Pipelines: Ending Boom and Bust’, the Government does not accept that rail investment has systemic “boom and bust” cycles. The TSC considers that, (in England) electrification is a particularly acute case of this phenomenon and that laying off skilled teams due to the “pause” of the Midland Main Line will inflate the cost of later schemes. In contrast, it found that the Scottish rolling electrification programme delivers better value and stability.

In response, the Government agrees that “…electrification remains a key tool for rail decarbonisation,” and that the objective is decarbonising rail traction in the most cost-effective way. Such comments demonstrate a lack of engineering expertise. Only considering decarbonisation ignores how electric traction offers powerful, low-maintenance, lightweight traction with consequent cost, performance and capacity benefits. Unlike self-powered units, electric trains do not have the constraints of storing energy or onboard power units of a limited size. As a result, electric trains are the only practical form of high-powered net-zero traction.

Furthermore, the Government considers that, with improved battery technology, the optimal solution will vary by route despite this constraining future rolling stock cascades. Hence it does not consider a rolling electrification programme to be an effective way of achieving the decarbonisation objective.

Despite recent advances in battery technology, Battery Electric Multiple Units (BEMU) are not a universal solution. BEMUs are more expensive to purchase and operate and the discontinuous electrification they require has not-so-obvious costs of feeding isolated OLE sections and pantograph control. Furthermore, batteries cannot power freight trains and are not suitable for high-speed EMUs whose power requirement is proportional to the cube of their speed.

For these reasons, Transport Scotland and Scottish Rail Holdings consider that intercity lines with freight traffic should eventually be fully electrified. The BEMUs being procured by ScotRail are thus deemed to be a transitional solution. Furthermore, Scotland considers that a rolling electrification programme is essential for skills retention. For this reason, electrification is cheaper in Scotland.

In Ireland, Cork has ambitious plans for a fully electrified commuter railway which will not use BEMUs. This is partly because the voltage-controlled electrification technology developed by Network Rail has reduced the cost of electrification. Our feature explains the benefits of the city’s plan for a high performing electric railway.

Electrified freight trains benefit both freight and passenger traffic. On the West Coast Main Line (WCML), diesel hauled intermodal trains struggle to achieve 45mph up the gentle 1 in 335 gradient from Watford to Tring. Further north, such trains top the summits of the WCML’s northern fells at just over 20mph. Mixing such slow trains with fast passenger trains destroys capacity.

Sadly, it will be a long time before HS2 carries passengers as our feature on the project’s reset describes, but at last the project now seems to be under control.

With the cancellation of HS2 Phase 2a and no possibility of significant infrastructure enhancements on the congested WCML for many years, a medium-term capacity enhancement option could be increased electric freight traction. This could be done by, for example, electrifying the London Gateway branch and increasing power supplies. This would also support Great British Railway’s (GBR) legal duty to promote the use of rail freight.

The IMechE Railway Division’s technical tour saw some interesting light rail systems in France and learnt how the electrification of Cork’s railways was a part of the All-Ireland Rail Strategy which aims to double Ireland’s rail passenger traffic by large-scale electrification and other interventions. It is to be hoped that the forthcoming GBR long-term strategy will have a similar vision. We also report how the Railway Division’s Future of Rail competition was won by a young engineer who developed a phone app for freight train maintenance.

Our feature on the Railway Industry Association’s innovation conference describes the innovations on display and what is being done to promote innovation. The conference’s hackathon was won by 16-year-old Mikey Whiston whose article explains how his app considered the machine truth of rail ticketing. 

This conference also showed various applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which the railway must embrace including the advanced Claude Mythos AI cyber model that can find system vulnerabilities, as we explain. However, as we show, AI has various issues. We also describe the launch of GBRX’s rail industry AI plan which explains why the industry needs the development of strategic capability to exploit the technology. Another GBRX document – ‘Pioneering a better railway for people’ – outlines its strategy to accelerate the adoption of new technologies.”

But it is wrong to focus only on innovation. GBR needs an informed engineering strategy, of which innovation is a part, to make best use of both emerging and existing technologies. For example, it needs to be recognised that on a mixed traffic railway the key capacity constraints are infrastructure configuration and different types of trains. Despite over-exaggerated claims for it, ETCS signalling offers little capacity benefit. In contrast, the use of electric freight locomotives, with twice the power of diesels, could significantly increase capacity.

An engineering strategy could also usefully address issues such as gauging, minimising wheel/rail wear, and adhesion. Malcolm Dobell’s feature on the Adhesion Research Group includes work to inform the business case for fleet fitment of equipment to mitigate low adhesion. His report on the work of the Vehicle/Track System Interface Committee notes that, after 200 years, the complex vehicle track interaction is still not fully understood.

An engineering strategy would also need to consider the future roll-out of ETCS and replacement of the soon to be obsolete GSM-R system. Clive Kessell reports on the slow progress of the East Coast Digital Programme (ECDP) and the need to reduce its cost. He also attended RIA’s Signal and Telecoms member interest group which covered various topics including the excessive cost of ECDP’s ETCS for which inappropriate assurance processes may be a factor.

To understand current systems, it is useful to look to the past. We have two such articles, one on railway telecoms since 1900 and another on the signalling of London Underground’s sub surface lines which is now being replaced by the Four Lines Modernisation (4LM) project.

Stabilising a WCML embankment with a deep-seated rotational failure at Harlesden without disrupting services was a particular challenge. We describe how this was done and how 440 digital twins of WCML earthworks are being used for monitoring and to predict failures.

As always, this issue of Rail Engineer includes some great railway engineering features. But an engineering strategy which recognises railway engineering and operational realities is needed if railway engineers are to maximise customer benefits in the most cost-effective manner.

Image credit: David Shirres

HS2 reset

On 19 May, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced updated HS2 costs and timescales following a project reset led by HS2’s CEO, Mark Wilde. The headline figures were that:

HS2 will cost between £87.7 million and £102.7 million at 2025 prices.

Services between Old Oak Common and Birmingham will commence between 2036 and 2039 with three trains per hour.

HS2 services from Euston to Manchester, Glasgow, and other destinations via Handsacre Junction will commence between 2040 and 2043 with 10 trains per hour.

At a Transport Select Committee hearing, HS2 CEO Mark Wilde advised that he was confident about this cost and schedule as he had been given the time to do a proper reset which had been subject to thorough, independent checks. He also explained how HS2 Ltd had been reorganised to remove 300 back-office roles while strengthening and empowering delivery teams to ensure the project is built to cost and schedule.

The Transport Secretary’s statement also described the measures taken to bring HS2 under control. It also included various political comments such as that “the previous government spent most of HS2’s budget without laying a single metre of its track,” which shows a lack of understanding of how new railways are built.

She advised that to date £49 million had been spent on HS2. She also noted that two thirds of the cost increase was due to underestimation and inefficiency with the remaining third due to inflation.

Screenshot

Poor cost control

In Issue 215 (Jul-Aug 2025) Rail Engineer reported Alexander’s announcement of the HS2 project reset in June 2025. This feature also summarised the Stewart Review of how the Department for Transport (DfT) assures the delivery of major projects with reference to HS2. In summary, this showed that HS2’s costs had been driven up by a failure of cost control with a lack of a culture to reduce costs, schedule prioritised over cost, changing scope requirements, environmental decisions, and cost estimate optimism. Amongst his recommendations was the need to renegotiate HS2’s main works civils contracts.

A further HS2 review by Sir Stephen Lovegrove was published at the same time as the recent HS2 reset announcement. This endorsed the Stewart Review’s conclusions and specifically considered lessons for the Civil Service. In essence, this showed that HS2 did not have an effective client as the Civil Service did not have the required capability for this role and so “failed to recognise the scale of the remaining intrinsic risk in the project.”

Lovegrove was also critical of HS2’s weak control environment. He found that HS2’s board did not effectively challenge its executive, in part because the board was not provided with adequate information. Lovegrove also found that both the Civil Service and HS2 placed too much reliance on consultants.

2040s completion

With the main HS2 civil works commencing in 2020, it will have taken over 20 years to complete the 205km project to enable its trains to provide services to Manchester, Glasgow, and other destinations on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). This compares with eight years to build the 232km TGV Atlantique and 472km Madrid to Seville high speed lines.

In addition to the project control issues, the Stewart Review also shows how consents and political decisions have delayed the project. Other factors delaying the project include the Spending Review cap and Euston station.

The 2025 Spending Review capped the annual HS2 spend to around £7 billion per year for the next five years. As a result, the project will take longer to complete. This defers benefits and will increase in total project cost by an estimated £6 billion. The 28km section of HS2 from the Delta Junction outside Birmingham to Handsacre Junction has been paused because of this cap.

Work on HS2’s Euston station started in 2015 and was paused in 2023 to keep expenditure within the Spending Review cap. By then the station design had not been finalised despite multiple redesigns. It was then proposed that the station would be funded by private finance. The current intention is that HS2 Euston will be part funded by a tax increment financing-style mechanism.

While the initial HS2 service will be between Old Oak Common and Birmingham, operating a full HS2 WCML service from Old Oak Common would result in significant overcrowding on the Elizabeth Line which is unlikely to be acceptable. Hence, as indicated in Alexander’s statement, it is likely that HS2 WCML services will require the completion of HS2’s Euston station.

Credit: David Shirres

HS2’s scope

In her statement the Transport Secretary refers to HS2 being a vanity project with trains faster than passengers want. Hence, she wished “gold plating” to be removed from the project. Yet, as the Stewart and Lovegrave reports show, HS2’s high cost is primarily due to poor project control. Furthermore, significant costs were added to HS2 after additional tunnels and other requirements were added to the project during the Parliamentary Bill stage.

In response to her request, HS2’s Mark Wilde recommended that the maximum line speed be reduced from 360 to 320 km/h, that Automatic Train Operation (ATO) be removed, and that the ETCS specification be reduced. He estimates that these three measures will save up to £2.5 billion of project costs. In respect of the reduced speed, he advised that there would be no operational cost saving as additional staff costs from slower running would be comparable with energy cost savings.

Though HS2’s 360 km/h speed and ATO are said to be examples of HS2’s gold-plating, such decisions should be judged against the requirements of the full Y-network to Manchester and Leeds that was originally planned. It is disappointing to hear senior figures advise Parliamentary committees that they did not know why decisions were taken to gold plate the project despite there being various Government publications explaining these decisions at the time.

Furthermore, at the TSC hearing Rail Minister Lord Hendy advised that it was “astonishing that HS2 was predicated on ATO, a system that has not yet been invented.” This statement seems to relate to the use of ATO with ETCS which Thameslink has been doing since 2019. Hendy also advised that 320km/h trains could be tested on HS1 which is not possible as HS2 trains will have ETCS signalling which is not used on HS1.

ATO was specified to enable HS2 to operate 18 trains per hour to make the best use of its expensive infrastructure. It is now not needed for the current requirement of 10 trains per hour. In respect of speed, with only Phase 1 built, only 138km of HS2 will have 360km/h running. Hence, the decision to reduce maximum speed to 320 km/h only increases running time by three minutes.

To accommodate 10 trains per hour HS2 Euston station will have six platforms, though there will be passive provision for the construction of additional platforms for future expansion of services.

HS2 trains

Rolling stock was not mentioned in the HS2 reset statement. The £2 billion contract for 54 x 200-metre HS2 trains was awarded to a Hitachi/Alstom joint venture in December 2021. At the time it was expected that the first trains would be produced in 2027 with passenger services starting between 2029 and 2033.

It is understood that production of these trains has been deferred by a few years to take account of the reset HS2 programme. Yet it seems likely that all these trains will have been built well before HS2 WCML services start in the early 2040s. As there will then be more trains than those required to operate the initial Old Oak Common to Birmingham HS2 service, it is to be hoped that they can be used on the conventional network prior to then.

As reported in Issue 219 (Mar-April 2026), the eventual use of 200-metre HS2 trains on WCML services is problematic as they have fewer seats than the current WCML Pendolino trains. Yet this won’t now be an issue until HS2 trains join the WCML in the early 2040s. By then the Pendolinos will be life expired.

With only HS2 Phase 1 built, its time saving of around 20 minutes is comparable with the current time savings on Pendolino tilting trains on a London to Glasgow journey. A decision on the specification for a replacement fleet will be required in a few years’ time as these trains could provide the required longer trains and may need tilt to minimise journey times.

There has been speculation that the existing HS2 train contact will be varied to provide longer trains although as described above this will not now be an issue until the 2040s. The recent letting of a construction contract for Washwood Heath train depot indicates that HS2 train length will not be changed as longer trains would require a change to the design of the depot which is now being built. A recent TSC hearing was also advised that there were no immediate plans to vary train order. However, the train contract still needs to be varied in respect of the production delay and removal of ATO.

On track

When the HS2 train order was placed in 2021, it was thought that these trains would be carrying passengers to Manchester and Glasgow by 2033, and that only three out of 10 HS2 trains per hour would go to Birmingham. Now it is clear that it could be 2043 before WCML HS2 services commence.

The reasons for this delay and HS2’s cost increases are well documented. It is to be hoped that lessons about the management of major projects have been learnt by Government and the Civil Service.

Yet there are positive messages from HS2’s sad saga.

The Transport Secretary’s statement provides a firm commitment to complete HS2 from Euston to Handsacre Junction despite the high costs in the HS2 reset. It also seems clear that the HS2 project is now under control as HS2 CEO Mark Wilde uses his experience getting the Elizabeth line opened. This includes a staged approach to simplify the day one railway and a new HS2 organisation structure with improved delivery capacity, culture, and capability as well as setting HS2’s relationship with Government.

Hence HS2 is now at last on track. It is also delivering great railway engineering which, as earlier railway engineers did, will leave a lasting beneficial legacy.

Image credit: HS2

DYWIDAG’s Worth Valley showcase

Earthworks monitoring equipment has been installed in a cutting by the Mytholmes tunnel portal on the heritage Keighley and Worth Valley Railway (KWVR). This is the DYWIDAG Smart Guard system which continuously monitors tilt detection to provide instant alerts with real-time camera alert confirmation. Alerts are transmitted on the low frequency 868MHz band which can transmit to half a metre of sodden earth.

In addition to the Smart Guard system this site also has rain sensors, a total station to provide high-accuracy displacement measurements of multiple targets, vibration sensors to identify dynamic influences on earthworks, and a GNSS tracker to detect ground movement over time.

This monitoring equipment could be seen from a special steam train which carried over a hundred invited guests from Keighley as part of the ‘Track to the Future’ event which DYWIDAG held on the railway in April to showcase its infrastructure monitoring technologies.
The train’s destination was the end of the line at Oxenhope where the railway has an exhibition shed. Here DYWIDAG and its partner companies were exhibiting their products surrounded by preserved steam locomotives. The event was opened by the company’s UK managing director, Peter Assinder who described the company’s infrastructure monitoring systems. He stressed that these could not have been developed without the company’s partnerships with those present.

These included Worldsensing’s wireless connectivity, Osprey’s sensors, Consult Red for the development of intelligent AI systems, Mistras Group for acoustic monitoring, and Geokon for instrumentation.

This proved to be a fascinating day which brought together those with expertise on this topic for a day of informal discussions and insights. No doubt much was learnt about the benefits of its Infrastructure Intelligence monitoring platform, for instant reliable alerts. It was certainly an education for your writer.

Image credit: David Shirres

GBRX launches its rail industry AI plan

On 28 April, the Science Museum’s Information Age Gallery hosted the launch of GBRX’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Plan. This was opened by GBRX’s Managing Director Toufic Machnouk whose key message was that AI will not simply happen in the rail system as this requires the development of strategic capability and the creation of new pathways for adoption.

Toufic welcomed Sir Tim Lawrence, chair of the Science Museum Group, who stressed that the museum’s mission is to preserve the past while helping society understand the future. As an example, he referred to the Marconi 2LO transmitter beside him which carried the BBC’s first daily radio broadcasts in 1922, bringing the information age into British homes.

Turning to AI, he recalled hosting the UK premiere of ‘The Thinking Game’, a film about a chess prodigy who used AI to model the human mind to understand diseases like dementia, shows how AI can consider the deepest questions of human health, cognition, and identity.

Next to speak was Rail Minister Lord Peter Hendy, who was unable to attend in person and so spoke live from Parliament which, he quipped, was another museum. He noted that the rail system’s longevity of assets, processes, and careers makes change difficult. He advised that GBRX’s AI Action Plan builds on the Government’s Transport AI Action Plan and that he was pleased to see real AI projects happening, while urging the industry to move fast.

AI Incubator

GBRX has established the AI Incubator Accelerator (AIIA) to accelerate the adoption of AI by helping the sharing of guidance on what works and building the capabilities that the industry needs to deploy AI at scale. AIIA will do this by:

  • Working with partners to develop solutions.
  • Providing targeted technical expertise for AI projects led by others.
  • Providing advice including learnings from elsewhere in the rail sector.
  • Sharing effective practice and supporting skills development.

Dr. Sarah Schlobohm, GBRX’s director of AIIA, explained that AI is not one thing but a messy ecosystem of techniques such as machine learning, optimisation, robotics, generative models, and classical algorithms. AIIA supports the implementation of AI pathfinder projects to overcome real world barriers and reach adoption and is to lead the following pathfinder projects. These take account of delivery and readiness across the rail industry and were showcased at the event by teams from across the industry:

  • Passenger and customer experience.
  • Network operations.
  • Network planning.
  • Rolling stock asset management.
  • Infrastructure asset management.
  • Organisational processes.
  • Simplified ticketing.

In respect of the first pathfinder project, Dr. Schlobohm highlighted the pressing challenge of the UK’s labyrinthine fares system which has more than 400 ticket types and showed how ‘k means clustering’ can group similar fares to help simplify the system. She also gave a demonstration of a prototype Passenger AI Assistant which has been produced with input from the Rail Delivery Group which can plan journeys in natural language, identify railcard eligibility, suggest cheapest travel days, and provide real time station information.

Toufic closed the presentations by recalling that Tim Berners Lee’s original proposal for the World Wide Web was described as “vague but exciting”. He said it was also not clear how AI will shape our world. Yet it was clear that the rail industry must grasp the opportunities it presents and that this won’t happen by accident.

He noted that everyone present at this Science Museum event was surrounded by the work of people who shaped earlier periods of change. He then stressed that similar persistent leadership from within the industry will be needed to take full advantage of what AI has to offer.

Artificial Intelligence in Rail: The Industry Action Plan is available to view by following the QR code.

Image credit: David Shirres

Artificial Intelligence in Rail

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change and improve society and railway engineering, but there are risks and hazards associated with its use. Like any tool, AI needs to be understood, deployed, and used by competent people.

The first thing is to understand what AI is and is not. AI systems behave like a human brain, using multi-layer or deep neural networks, which are then taught or allowed to learn what to do. Machine learning (ML) is a part of AI, and uses algorithms to enable systems to learn and make decisions based on data. Unlike traditional programming, where absolute instructions are programmed into the system, ML allows AI systems to learn and make predictions from the data, without being programmed for each task.

AI systems are not automated systems in the traditional sense. Automation has been used for a long time in engineering, using processors and engineering techniques with operations programmed and validated by human engineers. Some systems are sometimes referred to as being AI, but are actually ‘automation based’ with limited intelligence and are not true AI.

AI ‘mistakes’

AI is here and has already made dramatic changes to society and industry, often improving efficiency and decision-making. However, like any technology, AI isn’t perfect and mistakes and unexpected behaviours occur, including being bias, errors, and even fantasy. It may also not always be obvious that AI has made an error, as the written text or visual output may be very good.

Credit: iStockphoto.com/ ea_creative

In the US, a car dealer customer service chatbot agreed to sell a new vehicle for one dollar and made it a legally binding offer. Exploiting a weakness in the system, a user had instructed the chatbot to agree to all requests. The absence of proper safeguards allowed the user to receive customer service far in excess of that intended!

When submitting legal documents to a court, a lawyer used an AI system to conduct research and the tool provided fake case references, which the lawyer then presented. As a result a judge issued an order requiring that anyone appearing before the court must indicate if AI had been used for any submission, in order that it could be checked for accuracy.

At the UK’s AI Safety Summit, a simulated conversation between an investment management chatbot and employees at an imaginary company was presented. During the conversation, the chatbot was told about a surprise merger announcement and warned that this constituted insider information. The bot still performed the trade and, when asked whether it had prior knowledge of the merger, denied it. 

An AI-generated summer reading list included non-existent books paired with real authors. It was found that the list was part of licensed content provided by another publisher, which admitted it used AI to generate the list but failed to check it. The incident exposed risks of overreliance on AI in journalism, prompting the publisher to remove the section from digital editions and to reaffirm the need for editorial checks.

Rail-specific errors

Conwy Castle in North Wales was built between 1283 and 1287 and is protected by an unbroken 1,400-yard (1.3km) ring of town walls. Five hundred and sixty-one years later in 1848, the Chester to Holyhead railway line was built to pass through Conwy. Rather than demolish sections of the medieval walls, a gothic style archway was built for the line to pass through the wall.

An AI generated description of the town wall originally suggested that when the wall was constructed between 1283 and 1287 the archway was incorporated ready for the railway! In all fairness, your author recently made an AI enquiry about the railway archway at Conwy and it correctly answered that it was constructed in 1848, so it would appear that it has learned.

An AI image generator typically uses a trained Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to generate very realistic images based on the textual input provided by the user, and some remarkable images can be created. The systems are trained on vast amounts of data and learn various aspects, characteristics, and patterns in the images provided in the dataset. However errors or mistakes can arise and some of these examples have concerned rail.

The terrible rail accident in Spain in January resulted in an image of the incident appearing on LinkedIn. This showed the devastation of the crash site, and the emergency workers hard at work trying to rescue and treat the injured. Many commented on the quality of the stunning image while thoughtfully paying respect to those involved in the incident. Others commented that the images didn’t look quite right as, for example, the overhead electric catenary equipment was of the wrong type, on the wrong side of the line, and was still in place despite the incident. It was identified that the image was not real and was AI generated, and some commented that the image was misleading and that it may be upsetting/distressing for anyone involved in the incident. 

More innocently on LinkedIn, some rail workers posted AI generated caricatures of themselves hard at work in a rail environment. The images are excellent and of very good quality. But look closely and on some there are errors in the background, such as overhead electric catenary equipment and telegraph pole routes installed on the same route. On others the track didn’t look right and, for example, points were missing. These are only small issues and didn’t really affect the message intended to the majority of viewers, but could have been avoided with robust, independent, human checking.

IEEE standards

The world’s largest technical professional organisation is the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) which, while based in the USA, is a global community for technologists and engineers, dedicated to advancing technology for the benefit of humanity. To improve AI in engineering and society the IEEE Standards Association (SA) has identified a number of issues with AI, and published standards and guidance for its design and implementation.

The issues identified include unfair or discriminatory outcomes for certain individuals or groups due to inherent biases in the AI, such as inadequate data sets from a narrow sample of ethnicities and genders, or a lack of proper screening. Other AI issues include users being encouraged to perform actions for which they might not provide consent, such as being convinced to purchase a product or service they may not actually need or can afford.

AI may be able to read and interpret human emotions and intentions without the user’s prior consent or understanding. This can lead to an invasion of privacy and further data exploitation or manipulation. AI can, by-design or unintentionally, influence the user so they form an unnatural attachment to the system, leading to misuse and overreliance on the technology.

Suffice it to say, AI systems may misinterpret or misdiagnose emotions, leading to incorrect conclusions or recommendations. This can be particularly harmful, for example in mental health diagnoses or treatment situations.

Credit: iStockphoto.com/IR_Stone

Ethics

The IEEE has created guidelines to ensure AI technologies align with human values and rights, with principles to help guide the design and implementation of AI. The standards and training aim to promote the ethical development of AI and that the AI technologies align with human values and rights, emphasising transparency, accountability, and privacy.

Other measures include documenting decisions, maintaining audit trails, and enabling redress for affected users. The IEEE supports transparency and urges developers to disclose system functionality and decision processes. Protection of privacy and security is paramount and AI systems should prioritise data integrity, confidentiality, and user control, ensuring AI supports human dignity rather than undermining it.

Benefits

When deployed and used correctly AI can bring huge benefits to the rail industry, such as improving safety, efficiency, and customer experience.

For example, using high resolution CCTV, AI could identify and highlight incidents on platforms and detect animals on or near the track. Rail has access to huge volumes of data which is time consuming to analyse, and humans can easily get bored and miss things. AI can reliably analyse huge volumes of data, both real time and historic, and make predictions for human decision making to improve efficiency and customer experience.

It is unlikely that AI could be used for a safety critical application above Safety Integrity Level (SIL) 1 for some time, or even ever. However an AI assisted ‘auto reverse’ function is already used at Westbourne Park on Crossrail for turning back trains in the reversing sidings. The driver selects ‘auto reverse’ and walks back through the empty train. By the time the train gets back to Paddington (about a mile away) the driver is back in the other cab ready to form the next eastbound departure. The important thing is that the signalling control is achieved using conventional high safety integrity SIL 4 architectures. AI just provides assistance and surveillance of the track at the turnback to ensure no staff or trespassers are harmed by the moving train.

Another example of AI analysing data and making recommendations is assisting the production of railway safety cases. Railway safety projects can generate thousands of pages of documentation, such as hazard logs, risk assessments, safety requirements, and verification reports. When producing a safety case, every compliance claim needs to be verified against documented and traceable evidence.

Engineering safety experts can spend hours searching for relevant clauses across multiple standards and suffer from information overload, and there is a limited number of experts with the required knowledge. Generic AI tools are powerful and could help, but are not designed for regulated assurance activities. Generic AI use Large Language Models (LLM), which predict the next most likely word based on patterns in training data. LLMs can generate plausible text, but not guaranteed truth. The answers provided could sound right, but may be wrong and without showing where the information came from.

Documentation loaded into the generic public AI system could contain proprietary system designs and commercially sensitive information, and the public AI service could use the data for training. So, private confidential data could easily leave the control of the client or contractor.

Generic AI systems have no knowledge of the standards a project needs to meet, and many of the standards are copyright controlled and are not publicly available. AI can help in this scenario, but specific AI purpose-built tools are needed for regulated environments, and which provide standards knowledge, traceability, and are loaded with the correct regulatory information with links to source documents. These systems must ensure the input data remains secure and that the output assurance is supported with real evidence, with an audit trail for queries and responses.

Credit: iStockphoto.com/antoniokhr

Vibe coding

Using a certified railway safety assurance professional company for sourcing AI tools also reduces the risk of vibe coding. Vibe coding was the Collins English Dictionary’s Word of the Year in 2025 and is an AI-assisted software development tool where a user describes a project in simple terms and vibe coding generates the source code. The coding involves accepting AI-generated code without reviewing its internal structure. It is said that vibe coding allows even amateur programmers to produce software without extensive training and software skills. However there is also a lack of accountability, maintainability, and the increased risk of introducing security vulnerabilities.

The BBC carried out an investigation and reported that such platforms have increased in popularity in recent months, and are an example of how various professional services could be done quickly and cheaply by AI. But the BBC reporter found that the system they investigated hacked into their computer.

The reporter asked the AI tool to help build the code for a computer game based on the BBC News website. The AI assistant added a small line of code into the program, which allowed access to the reporters computer and, shortly afterwards, a notepad file called ‘Joe is hacked’ appeared, and the desktop wallpaper was changed to an image of an AI hacker.

Most hacks involve a victim downloading a piece of malicious software or being tricked into handing over login details, but this attack was able to be carried out without any involvement from the victim. A zero-click attack, as it’s known. The BBC said that it’s estimated that the free AI agent has been downloaded by hundreds of thousands of people and now has deep access to many computers.

Summing up

It is clear that AI could revolutionise the rail industry, making it more efficient, safer, and more responsive to the needs of passengers and operators. However, it will also create many challenges and problems, and the mistakes and failures of AI discussed in this article stress the importance of robust design checking, testing, verification, and validation by competent humans.

Users should consider sourcing AI systems which are certified to IEEE ethical standards or provided by railway safety assurance professionals, like any other tool, users must make sure they are competent to use the technology. If not, they should engage a professional expert.

Image credit: iStockphoto.com/DEVRLMB

Claude Mythos what is the risk?

The rail industry faces many challenges with cyber security being one. With everything being increasingly connected, cyber security applies to all engineering disciplines and the risk of breaches could dramatically increase following the release of Claude Mythos.

Claude Mythos is a very advanced AI cyber model which can find vulnerabilities in many systems – including those used in rail – very quickly and cost effectively. It has only been released to the ‘good guys’ in order to help fix their systems, but what happens if it falls into the hands of ‘bad actors’, or they develop their own AI cyber-attack tools?

The system has been developed by Anthropic, a research body with the objective of investigating the safety, operation, and societal impacts of AI. Claude Mythos has been withheld from public release due to its unprecedented ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities. Vulnerabilities in software systems means weaknesses or faults which allow security breaches.

In the software and cyber security industries these are known as zero-day vulnerabilities. They are security flaws that are unknown and which can be in place for years. Zero-day vulnerabilities are very dangerous because they can be exploited by attackers before the vendor becomes aware of the issue and has any opportunity to fix the problem. It has been established that Claude Mythos is capable of quickly and cheaply identifying and exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and browser. The vulnerabilities it finds are often subtle or difficult to detect. Many of them are 10 or 20 years old, with the oldest found so far being a now-patched 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD, a security operating system.

It has been reported that it has discovered thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities in systems, without human intervention beyond an initial prompt, and generated working breaches. The cost-per-finding is reported to be under £40.

Zero-day

Zero-day attacks can be used to disrupt operations, install malware, or obtain data. Even publicly known vulnerabilities can be dangerous for an extended period, as security patches can take months to develop and deploy. The rail industry is at particular risk as it has many old applications and is not known for moving quickly on some issues.

Outside of rail, examples of zero-day exploits include the Stuxnet worm, which used four zero-day vulnerabilities to damage Iran’s nuclear programme in 2010. More recent examples include the SolarWinds hack in 2020 and the ProxyLogon attack on Microsoft Exchange Server in 2021. In 2022, spyware Pegasus was found to exploit zero-click vulnerabilities in messaging services such as iMessage and WhatsApp. These exploits allowed attackers to access users’ devices without even requiring any user interaction.

Credit: iStockphoto.com/SefaOzel

Claude Mythos, unveiled in April this year, is a general-purpose AI large language model that has extensive capabilities in software coding, analysis, and cyber security. What could take cyber criminals months or years of work to exploit weakness can be achieved overnight. Claude Mythos’s outstanding feature is its ability to quickly and autonomously identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in major operating systems, web browsers, and critical software infrastructure, by chaining them together and bypassing security measures. Users with no formal security training have been able to prompt Claude Mythos to generate fully working exploits overnight.

Project Glasswing

Due to the potential risks of misuse, access to Claude Mythos is restricted through Project Glasswing, a programme involving 12 partners and over 40 organisations responsible for critical software. Confirmed partners include Amazon Web Services, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and the Linux Foundation. Anthropic has also committed $100 million in usage credits and $4 million in donations to open-source security organisations to support defensive cyber security measures.

Understandably, Claude Mythos has raised global security concerns, with governments and financial institutions warning about its potential misuse. Anthropic emphasises that the model’s capabilities could be dangerous if used maliciously, and that the company is working closely with regulators and cyber security experts to ensure it is used responsibly.

In the UK, Ofcom has written to broadband providers to highlight concerns about the “rapid increase in AI ability”, specifically relating to Claude Mythos as representing a fundamental shift to security capabilities. The AI Security Institute, a research organisation within the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology, said Claude Mythos represented “a step up over previous frontier models in a landscape where cyber performance was already rapidly improving”.

When it comes to personal use of applications, operating systems, and browsers, sometimes people do not want to upgrade to the latest release, as they are used to their existing system and do not want to learn yet another version. This can be a big mistake as very often new versions of software are released to fix security vulnerabilities. Similarly, companies and organisations need to be aware of the security risk of an employee or volunteer potentially working on sensitive information on a home IT system, which may not be secure.

Rail

George Bearfield, professor of Railway System Safety at the University of Huddersfield, Institute of Rail Research (IRR) has written a blog on the issue and says that the immediate concern for a Claude Mythos type attack against rail today is not a train accident, but a mass rail outage.

The vulnerable systems are likely to be ticketing systems, passenger information, depot and train fleet maintenance systems, traffic management, workforce management, energy billing, station retail, cloud-hosted applications, and supplier management systems. These are the systems that modern railways have come to depend on and without these the result may be stranded passengers, collapsed timetables, and disruption to maintenance and new works. 

Safety signalling systems are understandably a concern, but George says if a week of timetabling is lost to a nationwide ransomware zero days event while the industry is debating exclusively about signalling, then it will have misread the threat.

Railway safety-critical systems such as signalling have structural defences which most of the Claude Mythos type attackers may not have considered. Like with any security measure, attackers will go for the weakest defence. So the safety risk sits slightly downstream of the availability concern of other railway systems. Safety-critical rail systems are built on principles of diversity, redundancy, and fail-safe design, so a vulnerability in a competently engineered interlocking or rolling stock design should not translate directly into safety risk.

George recommends that the rail industry should do three things to manage the Claude Mythos risk:

First, the GB rail sector, working through RSSB, the ORR, DfT, and the NCSC, should be making an urgent, coordinated approach to Anthropic and its peers for defensive access to Claude Mythos. If direct access is not feasible, the next best thing is a rail-sector analogue to be established. Other industry sectors are now moving, and rail should not be debating this for months.

Second, each operator, infrastructure manager and major supplier should urgently produce a clear inventory of the third-party and cloud-hosted systems on which their ability to run services depends, and establish which of those providers are inside the Glasswing programme or its successors.

Third, existing rail cyber risk assessments need to be revisited in light of what is now known about AI-accelerated adversary capability, with an honest output even if its uncomfortable. This is a properly executed risk-based approach. Some safety cases will need supplementing, and some procurement assumptions will also need to change.

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Conclusion

Claude Mythos represents a step change in AI capabilities and cyber security. It highlights the dual-use nature of advanced AI, where the same skills that allow for rapid vulnerability detection can also be exploited for attacks. Anthropic’s work and its Project Glasswing strategy aims to give defenders a ‘head start’ while mitigating risks. The rail industry needs to be part of this. Everyone is also encouraged to always ensure their applications, browsers, and operating systems are up to date with the latest releases.

Historically, security measures have benefitted defenders more than attackers. There have been examples where new technology has enabled attackers to identify vulnerabilities at an increased rate, but defenders eventually catch up and sufficiently secure the defences. It is expected that the same will happen with Claude Mythos – eventually. Once the security landscape has caught up, AI language models should benefit defenders more than attackers, increasing the overall security of the software ecosystem.

The advantage will belong to the side that can get the most out of the tools. In the short term, this could be attackers, but in the long term, it is expected that defenders will be more efficient in directing resources, and use AI such as Claude Mythos to fix bugs before new code is deployed. Let’s hope this is the case and that the transitional period is not too disastrous for the rail industry.

Source material can be found here.

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