As originally conceived, HS2 was to be a Y network providing a by-pass for the West Coast, East Coast, and Midland Main Lines with a spur to Birmingham. After its Leeds and Manchester legs were cancelled in 2021 and 2023, all that remained was HS2 phase one to Birmingham Curzon Street and Handsacre Junction on the WCML just north of Lichfield.
It then seemed that HS2 services on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) north of Birmingham would have a significantly reduced passenger capacity as these would be operated by 200-metre HS2 trains instead of the current 266-metre Pendolino trains. With no 400-metre HS2 Manchester station, there could no longer be 2 x 200-metre HS2 trains to Manchester.
In Issue 209 (Jul-Aug 2024) we described how experienced rail manager, Chris Gibb, whose CV includes six years as chief operating officer of Virgin West Coast Trains, had proposed that life extended Pendolinos running on HS2 at 155mph could be used until 400-metre platforms could be built at some time in the future.
No longer a problem
Two years ago, it seemed that the problem of WCML 200-metre HS2 trains urgently needed to be addressed. Yet, it is now apparent that WCML HS2 trains will not be running until the late 2030s. Hence WCML HS2 will start around the time that the WCML Pendolino fleet, introduced in 2002, will need to be replaced.
With Gibb now considering how this replacement fleet could be used to maximise seats and train speeds on WCML HS2 services, Rail Engineer spoke to him again to learn more. In summary, he firmly believes that that the current contract for 54 x 200-metre eight-car trains should not be amended and that the Pendolino-replacement fleet should be 286-metre tilting trains.
HS2 train order
After a procurement process that took almost five years, in 2021 it was announced that the £2 billion contract for 54 HS2 trains would be awarded to a Hitachi-Alstom joint venture. These trains are to be built in accordance with a 338-page specification which specified that they would be 200 metres long, have a maximum speed of 360km/h, and travel the 644km between London and Glasgow, including 192km of HS2 between London and Handsacre junction, with two stops in three hours 45 ½ minutes.
When the contract was let, the requirement was for these trains to start their testing in 2024 and enter service between 2026 and 2033. The first train is now expected to be completed around 2027 with full production starting after the design is finalised. They will be the Class 895 units.
After the contract was let, the Hitachi-Alstom JV advised that these would be eight-coach trains. HS2 coach mock-ups on display at last year’s Greatest Gathering showed that the Class 895 units will have 504 seats with spaces for four wheelchairs, four bikes, and two children’s buggies. They offer more leg room than the Pendolinos and will have 10% more seats per train-length-metre than the Pendolino fleet. This is achieved by placing all the train’s equipment below the coach.
Gibb is adamant that lengthening these trains would be a mistake as it would prevent 400-metre trains running on HS2 between London and Birmingham and so reduce long-term capacity. He considers it essential that such HS2 passenger traffic is maximised to provide capacity for those at intermediate WCML stations between London and Birmingham and on Chiltern lines. Running 2 x 200-metre trains would also make best use of the HS2 trains on order prior to them operating WCML services.
Lengthening HS2 trains would also incur significant cost as:
- Altering Washwood Heath depot to accommodate 250-metre instead of 200-metre trains within the current depot footprint would be challenging and time consuming with the requirement for a revised planning application.
- It would require the expensive variation of a £2 billion contract.
- Fewer trains would be produced which would reduce capacity and revenue.
Pendolino replacement
The current Class 390 Pendolino fleet comprises of 574 vehicles made up of 21 x 9-car and 35 x 11-car trains. Though they have a maximum speed of 200 km/h they were built for 225 km/h as Railtrack was contractually committed to operate the WCML at this speed. Virgin Trains originally announced that it would offer 140mph trains travelling between London and Glasgow in three hours 55 minutes.
As they were introduced in 2002, these trains will need to be replaced around the same time that HS2 connects to the WCML at Handsacre. Hence prior to then a fleet replacement programme will be needed. The HS2 timetable that Gibb has worked with others to develop requires the current order for 54 x 200-metre HS2 trains plus a further 43 x 12-car Pendolino-replacement trains. Hence 516 vehicles need to be procured.
Gibb considers that these trains should be 286-metres long with 750 seats. Such trains could be accommodated at Manchester, Glasgow, and Edinburgh. He also considers it to be essential that they should be tilting trains as discussed later.
Though there need be no capital spend on this replacement fleet for several years, a start needs to be made now on planning the specification and procurement of these trains. This includes engaging with major manufacturers who would be attracted by this large order, especially as other European tilting trains will require renewal about the same time.
To tilt or not
HS2 did not procure tilting trains as it was perceived that tilting adds weight, complexity, and cost. Gibb disputes this view which has not been market tested. Furthermore, the original long-term plan was for HS2 trains to join the WCML at Bamfurlong, south of Wigan with 44% of the London to Glasgow journey being on HS2 tracks. This would have offered significantly greater time savings than time lost due to the lack of tilt.
However, as HS2 is now to join the WCML at Handsacre, its time savings become comparable to the time lost from lack of tilt. Furthermore, if, as has been suggested, HS2’s maximum speed train speeds are to be reduced from non-tilting, HS2 trains will only offer a minimal journey time saving between London and Glasgow.
Table 1 (above) illustrates these times which are your writer’s best indicative estimate based on HS2 line speed profiles and sectional appendix EPS speeds and published HS2 journey times.
This explains why Gibb considers that tilting trains, such Alstom’s Avelia Liberty, are essential. These have a design speed of 330km/h and offer active tilting up to 7 degrees at up to 300km/h.
An alternative is infrastructure work to enable HS2 trains to operate at higher curving speeds. A 2014 Network Rail study concluded that increasing cant and lengthening transition curves could offer a 10-minute journey time saving between Handsacre and Glasgow. This would require work at 76 locations at an estimated cost of £100 million excluding the cost of any overhead line work. Assessing the best way to minimise journey times on the curvy WCML route requires a whole system study which would have to consider the impact on slower trains of increased cant.
For now, the option to purchase tilting trains needs to remain open. Currently, a Pendolino’s speed on curves is controlled by a Tilt Authority Speed System (TASS). The planned WCML introduction of ETCS therefore should include a tilt-enabled speed profile for the operation of a future ETCS-fitted tilting train fleet.
2040 HS2 timetable
A railway timetable is the industry’s shop window showing the journey opportunities offered to passengers. HS2’s 2019 business case included an indicative service pattern yet, since then, nothing has been published about the services that will be offered by HS2.
Gibb’s proposal rectifies this omission as it includes a timetable produced by volunteer expert timetable planners to show how HS2 could operate 10 services an hour from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street and WCML destinations.
This timetable uses a mix of HS2 and Pendolino replacement trains to provide 10 HS2 services from Old Oak Common per hour with 286-metre Pendolino replacement trains to Manchester and Glasgow, 2 x 200-metre HS2 trains to Birmingham and single 200-metre HS2 trains to other destinations as shown figures 1 (left) and 2 (below).
This proposal would provide 8,286 seats per hour with most passengers getting to Old Oak Common using the Elizabeth line. As this is comparable with the seating capacity on the Elizabeth line which also carries many other passengers, a lot of HS2 passengers would have to stand when using the Elizabeth line. It is to be hoped that HS2’s Euston station will have opened by then.
With the cancellation of HS2 phase 2a, the WCML north of Handsacre has no additional capacity to accept HS2 services without cancelling an equivalent number of WCML train services from Euston. At peak hours there are currently 10 WCML trains through Lichfield each hour. Introducing seven HS2 WCML trains therefore leaves capacity for three trains per hour to accommodate northbound WCML traffic from Milton Kenyes, Rugby, Nuneaton, and Lichfield.
Gibb believes that, despite the capacity constraints, it would be possible to run a fast half-hourly service between Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester. This could be done by routing northbound trains via Stafford and southbound trains via Hixon to avoid the conflict at the flat junction at Colwich.
Maximising HS2’s benefits
HS2 phase one will eventually carry more WCML-bound trains than those to Birmingham. Yet in 2023 it was announced that work on HS2’s 27km link between its delta junction outside Birmingham and Handsacre is to be paused indefinitely. In April 2025 it was announced that work on the Handsacre link will resume in 2030.
The justification for this pause is that it enables construction to focus on the cost-efficient delivery of HS2’s opening to Birmingham. Although the decision reduces HS2’s annual project cost, it will increase total project costs. It also defers benefits of HS2 WCML trains and released WCML capacity south of Lichfield by several years as well as leaving the new £2billion HS2 fleet under-utilised during this time.
HS2 CEO Mark Wild will soon announce the result of HS2’s cost and programme reset which should include a definitive date for the introduction of HS2 WCML services via Handsacre. This will be around the late 2030s.
As previously mentioned, this is around the time that the current Pendolino fleet will need to be replaced. Therefore, maximising the benefits of HS2 WCML services requires a strategy to make the best use of both the HS2 trains on order and the Pendolino replacement fleet.
The first HS2 services to Birmingham will release a small number of WCML train paths out of Euston and will create extra capacity on Chiltern services as passengers transfer to HS2s service from Birmingham. The eventual introduction of HS2 WCML trains once the route to Handsacre is operational, will release significant capacity on the WCML south of Lichfield. However, on the congested WCML, a train service will have to be withdrawn for each new HS2 WCML service. Hence it is important to maximise the seating capacity of HS2 WCML trains.
The last business case for HS2 was for the full Y network to Leeds and Manchester and envisaged an initial WCML service of 10 trains an hour of 3 x 400-metre trains to Birmingham and 7 x 200-metre trains to WCML destinations in 2031 to offer 6552 seats per hour. This is 21% less than the timetable that Gibb suggests using the Pendolino replacement fleet. After this business case was published in 2019, HS2 was cut back to Birmingham and Handsacre. However, there has been no information about HS2 train services since then.
The 2019 HS2 business case has no mention of tilting trains without which HS2 services to Glasgow are likely to offer minimal journey time savings. This illustrates the need for a strategy to maximise the benefits of HS2 WCML services such as Gibb suggests. His proposal also rejects suggestions that the 200-metre HS2 trains on order should be lengthened as retaining 200-metre-long HS2 trains maximises capacity on Birmingham services with 2 x 200-metre trains.
In his discussion with Rail Engineer, Gibb stressed that as HS2 will be a legacy left by his generation for the next generation, it is essential that decisions taken now must not reduce its legacy.
Image credit: HS2