In recent times £4 billion has been invested in rolling stock and infrastructure on the East Coast Main Line (ECML). Infrastructure works have included power supply upgrades, the remodelling of Kings Cross station, and the dive-under at Werrington. Though these are impressive infrastructure projects, their benefits cannot be fully realised until the ECML has a timetable that makes best use of the capacity created by these projects.
Production of the new ECML timetable that is to be implemented in December was a complex task not least because there are not enough train paths to satisfy the demand of passenger and freight operators. Furthermore, the impact on train performance has to be considered. If all available train paths are used, minor delays will result in widespread disproportionate knock-on effects.
It has taken five years to develop this timetable which required the reconciliation of stakeholder aspirations and extensive modelling. Network Rail advised the largest ever form simulation model ever done in industry, as well as the use of signalling system simulators. This modelling predicts a 1.9% reduction in train performance which is considered acceptable given the extra capacity created. Lessons from the disastrous 2018 timetable introduction have also been addressed including a phased introduction, contingency plans, and detailed resource planning (driver diagrams, rolling stock allocation).
The new timetable will offer an extra 16,000 seats per week to generate extra revenue of £60 million per annum. It offers a 33% increase in train paths for long-distance high-speed services between London and Doncaster with a 20% increase between Doncaster and Newcastle. There will also be faster journey times between London and Edinburgh. The number of LNER trains from Kings Cross increases from five to six per hour.
As well as improved ECML fast services, there is to be a new Northern Train fast service between Leeds and Sheffield, extra Govia Thameslink suburban services, and an hourly East Midland Trains Lincoln to Nottingham service. There is to be a phased introduction of some of the new service. This makes the timetable introduction more manageable and also defers some new CrossCountry services until after a TransPennine Route Upgrade blockade.
One way of ensuring capacity is the shortening of the Leeds locomotive-hauled services from nine to seven coaches to give them the same performance characteristic of the Azuma trains. The resultant loss of seats on this service is addressed by other trains providing an improve service between London and stations south of Doncaster served by the Leeds trains.
Although the timetable offers significant improvements, some stakeholder aspirations have not been met. In particular there has been no increase in freight paths. At the press briefing for the new timetable, it was stated that “we will struggle for additional capacity between 06:00 and 22:00” and that “additional access rights will be considered carefully due to performance constraints.” It would seem, then, that the new ECML timetable offers little, if any, scope for additional train paths and is, in effect, full up.
Thus, a further significant timetable enhancement will require infrastructure work to improve capacity particularly on the two-track ECML sections. While Network Rail is undertaking capacity studies to determine the infrastructure enhancements required to release extra capacity, there is currently no funding for any such work.
At the press briefing it was clear that Network Rail’s view is that the first step for us is to make this timetable a success, to prove to the government that its previous ECML investments are now generating revenue. Hence the success of this timetable is key to making the case for future investment.
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